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Are Their Profits in Commodities? Think Steel


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We recently mentioned how aluminum over the past 12 months, had lost about 17.64%.  And as such identifies an industry worth more research to see if any individual companies are undervalued.  This month we have identified steel.

Looking at steel, we see it researched it all time high of 1265 in June 2008 and a record of low of 90 in March 2016.  Steel lost 220 USD/MT or 70.97% during the last 12 months from 310 USD/MT in March 2015.  Steel is important. It is one of the world’s most important materials that are used in construction, cars, machines and appliances.  The biggest producer of crude steel is China, then European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea.  The biggest producers of iron ore include China, Australia, Brazil, India, Russia, Ukraine and South Africa. Here are the numbers (the unit is USD/MT).  They consist of some actual numbers and some future projections: actual is 90, Q1/16 is 200, Q2/16 is 189, Q3/16 is 179, Q4/16 is 168, 2020 is 252.

 Today we know for a fact that a negative trend has been in place for the past 12 months resulting in a drop of almost 71%.  The next step is to look for individual companies that have been impacted by this downward trend that have been undervalued due to it and have good fundamentals.  You must ensure the companies have good fundamentals in order to have the cash flow, low debt and market share among other attributes to sustain them through this temporary down turns.  Also, it is important to identify the catalysts most likely to occur that will bring the value up.

Our subscribers to our PWC STOCK REPORTSSM subscription service had access to our security analysis pointing to a specific undervalued company back in September of 2015 that will most likely benefit over the long-term.  Recent US government tariffs on steel imports from China are having a positive impact on the stock price and was one of our projected catalysts in our report.  

At Port Wren Capital, LLC, we specialize in picking specific undervalued U.S. stocks using fundamental analysis developed by Benjamin Graham using a five step process. We have beaten the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ benchmarks since we started 5 years ago on our own investments. Discover the difference for yourself. To learn more contact us today.

Published: 4/1/16




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