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A Commodity on the Move! - Natural Gas Prices


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Do you think we’ll have a cold or warm winter this year? The answer to this question has more important implications that one might think. Typically we discuss this every upcoming winter with our friends and coworkers. But, this year it is much more significant to value investors.

Last year was a mild winter for most of the United States. Therefore, little natural gas was used and since the demand was low and lower supplies were available. So if this coming winter is colder than last then the stage has been set to drive prices higher as demand increases. The experts like Wells Fargo Securities say, “Expect gas to reach next year to $3.12 per million British Thermal Units, up from $3.00.” And another expert, Jefferies upped its figures when saying, “Its fourth-quarter price estimates $2.50 to $2.90.” Both estimates are high than the current prices. We see an upside compared to a year ago and compared the low point early in the first-quarter of this year.

Also, driving the demand of natural gas is some sufficient Geopolitical changes over the past few years under the current administration. This particular policy has driven down the demand and use of coal. This act in turn has put added pressure on the need to generate more natural gas. This has been noted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). See the cart that has been updated to include the July 2017 figure and notice the price trend.

Additionally, there has been an increase of the amount of natural gas being exported from the U.S. For example, exports to Mexico are up some 35%. And it should be noted that the finding of natural gas is a natural output from drilling for oil. All in all, there are a number of factors as mentioned herein that will all act together as catalysts to drive up the price of natural gas which in turn will impact some undervalued companies.

Here lays the potential for value investors to benefit from this special situation that has been created by this combination of events.  

We have disclosed some specific investment opportunities using the above strategies to our subscribers in our PWC STOCK REPORTSSM subscription service. They have access to our security analysis pointing to undervalued companies with above-average returns over the long-term.  

At Port Wren Capital, LLC, we specialize in picking specific undervalued U.S. stocks using fundamental analysis developed by Benjamin Graham using a five step process. We have beaten the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ benchmarks since we started 5 years ago on our own investments. Discover the difference for yourself. To learn more contact us today.

Published: 9/1/16





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